Analysis and forecasting of groundwater quality in urbanized Areas: Solutions based on the Teplostanskaya upland (Southwestern Administrative District of Moscow)

Using the example of the Teplostanskaya Upland in southwestern Moscow, which represents a distinct morphological structure and a natural watershed between the Setun, Ochakovka, and Moskva River basins, this paper demonstrates that the existing body of experimental research is insufficient for reliable spatiotemporal analysis and prediction of groundwater quality. Given the city's high development density and limited available space, its underground space is actively used for transport infrastructure (subways, tunnels), utilities, sewers, underground parking, and warehouses. This multifunctional use often conflicts with the preservation of the natural hydrogeological regime, as it disrupts established filtration pathways, alters the water level, and can facilitate the entry of pollutants into aquifers. This paper proposes a method for generating synthetic data (augmentation) that takes into account the statistical properties of the original time series. It was established that with an appropriate selection of the sample expansion coefficient, augmentation allows for the reliable description of both man-made pollutants (oil products) and natural components (calcium), enabling the construction of a forecast with a confidence interval. The possibility of extrapolating the results to the district's territory, taking into account morphological and landscape differences, was demonstrated. The analysis revealed that, despite the recorded improvement in groundwater quality in recent years, the likelihood of a reverse trend remains with increasing man-made loads and changing climatic conditions.

Dubov N. D., Kulikova E. Yu., Rosenthal O. M. Analysis and forecasting of groundwater quality in urbanized areas: Solutions based on the Teplostanskaya upland (Southwestern Administrative District of Moscow). MIAB. Mining Inf. Anal. Bull. 2026;(10-1):87-108. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.25018/0236_1493_2026_101_0_87.

The work has been done within the framework theme No. FMWZ-2025-0002 of the governmental assignment to RAS Institute of Water Problems

N.D. Dubov¹, Graduate Student, e-mail: nikita_dubov.99@mail.ru, ORCID ID: 0009-0000-0068-7920, Scopus Author ID: 60437457600,
E.Yu. Kulikova, Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Professor, Head of Chair, Russian Technical University MIREA, Moscow, Russia, NUST MISIS, 119049, Moscow, Russia, e-mail: kulikova_ey@mirea.ru, ORCID ID: 0000-0002-9290-671X, Scopus Author ID: 55827930100, SPIN-code: 6674-6807,
O.M. Rosenthal¹, Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Professor, Chief Researcher, e-mail: omro3@yandex.ru, ORCID ID: 0000-0001-6261-6060, Scopus Author ID: 57201976349, SPIN-code: 4857-7570,
¹ Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.

E.Yu. Kulikova, e-mail: kulikova_ey@mirea.ru.

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