Methodological framework of forecasting hazardous natural processes based on geodynamic zoning

The development of mining enterprises is currently facing negative trends due to geodynamic and geomechanical mining conditions. Most of the negative factors affecting the safety of mining are somehow related to structural failures of the host rock mass. The regulatory documents used at mining enterprises do not provide a methodology for accounting for structural failures at large scale levels (tectonic faults), which allows us to assess the formation of tectonically loaded and unloaded zones due to the block structure of the host rock mass. The article describes the experience of the Scientific Center for Geomechanics and Mining Issues, demonstrating the need to consider structural failures in mining operations planning not only in conditions of hard brittle ore deposits, but also salt deposits, which are characterized by the absence of tectonic faults directly in the salt layer. The article presents a comprehensive approach to the identification of geodynamically hazardous zones and the prediction of dangerous geodynamic processes for salt deposits. It is concluded that the zones are mainly confined to the areas of influence of tectonic faults in the host rock mass, and their potential danger is determined by neotectonic activity, the morphology of the fault plane, as well as the direction of rock deformations during displacement. Advanced research directions are proposed that can positively affect the reliability of the results obtained in predicting geodynamically hazardous zones and conducting geodynamic zoning in salt deposits conditions.

Shabarov A. N., Smirnov E. V. Methodological framework of forecasting hazardous natural processes based on geodynamic zoning. MIAB. Mining Inf. Anal. Bull. 2024;(11−1):157—170. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.25018/0236_1493_2024_111_0_157.

Shabarov A. N., Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Director of the Scientific Center for Geomechanics and Mining Issues, http://orcid.org/ 0000−0001−7925−3163, St. Petersburg Mining University, 199106, St. Petersburg, Vasilyevsky Island, 21 line, 2, Russia, e-mail: post@spmi.ru;
Smirnov E. V., Deputy General Director — Technical Director, Uralkali, 618426, Perm Krai, Berezniki, ul. Pyatiletki, 63, Russia.

Shabarov A. N., e-mail: post@spmi.ru

1. Kozyrev A. A., Savchenko S. N., Panin V. I., Semenova I. E., Rybin V. V., Fedotova Yu. V., Kozyrev S. A. Geomechanical processes in the geological environment of mining systems and geodynamic risk management. Apatites: FITC KNC RAS. 2019, 470 p. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.25702/KSC. 978−5-91137−391−7.

2. Baturin E. N., Menshikova E. A., Blinov S. M., Naumov D. Yu., Belkin P. A. Problems of development of the largest potash deposits in the world. Modern problems of science and education. 2012, no. 6. [In Russ].

3. Sinegubov V. Predicting the stress-strain state of a massif at the stage of creating a protective cover in the conditions of developing iron ore deposits under water-bearing strata. International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering. 2019, vol. 8(1), pp. 133–138.

4. Morozov K. V., Demekhin D. N., Kotlov C. N., Abashin V. I. Mine experimental studies of the filtration properties of rocks in deep horizons of potassium salt deposits to create waterproof bridges. Mining Journal. 2023, no. 5, pp. 25–33. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.17580/ gzh.2023.05.04.

5. Viladkar M. N. Geomechanical Challenges: Practices and Innovations. Indian Geotechnical Journal. 2018, vol. 48, pp. 1–51. DOI: 10.1007/s40098−017−0285-z.

6. Rasskazov M., Tereshkin A., Tsoi D., Konstantinov A., Miroshnikov V., Bagautdinov I., Kozhogulov K. Research of the formation of zones of stress concentration and dynamic manifestations based on seismoacoustic monitoring data in the fields of the Kola Peninsula. E3S Web Conf. 2020, vol. 192, 01009. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.1051/e3sconf/202019201009.

7. Filatov V. V., Bolotnova L. A. On the similarity and hierarchy of tectonic structures. Izvestiya vuzov. Mining magazine. 2019, no. 1, pp. 52–59. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.21440/0536−1028−2019−1-52−59.

8. Stefanov Yu. P., Bakeev R. A., Rebetsky Yu. L., Kontorovich V. A. Structure and formation stages of a fault zone in a geomedium layer in stick-slip displacement of the base. Physical Mesomechanics. 2013, vol. 16, no. 5, pp. 41–52. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.1134/ S1029959914030059.

9. Zuev B. Yu., Istomin R. S., Obozhina E. P. Physical modeling of nonlinear geomechanical processes in the development of potash deposits. Mining Journal. 2023, no. 5, pp. 75–80. DOI: 10.17580/gzh.2023.05.11.

10. Shabarov A. N., Zamorina Yu. V., Popov A. L., Bagautdinov I. I. An integrated approach to geodynamic zoning of mine fields. Mining informational and analytical bulletin. 2018, no. S49, pp. 496–506. [In Russ].

11. Lomov M. A., Konstantinov A. V., Tereshkin A. A. Promising methods of assessment and control of the geomechanical state of rock massifs. Problems of subsurface use [Electronic resource]: peer-reviewed network periodical scientific publication, IGD UrO RAS. 2019, no. 4(23), pp. 83–90. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.25635/2313−1586.2019.04.083.

12. Trushko V. L., Protosenya A. G. Prospects for the development of geomechanics in a new technological way. Notes of the Mining Institute. 2019, vol. 236, pp. 162–166. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.31897/PMI.2019.2.162.

13. Rasskazov I. Yu., Saksin B. G., Anikin P. A. Methods and results of burst-hazard assessment in the undeground mines of Russian Far East. Rockbursts and seismicity in mines: Proceeding of the 8th International Symposium, Saint-Petersburg, 2013, pp. 319–322.

14. Makeev V. M., Makarova N. V., Dorozhko A. L., Sukhanova T. V., Korobova I. V., Bondar I. V. Neotectonics and modern geodynamics of the territory of the Verkhnekamsk potash deposit. Bulletin of the Perm University. Geology. 2017, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 354–369. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.17072/psu.geol.16.4.354.

15. Shkuratsky D. N., Skopinov M. V., Smirnov E. V., Baryakh A. A. Liquidation of potentially dangerous sites at potash mines. Mining Journal. 2023, no. 3, pp. 5–12. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.17580/gzh.2023.03.01.

16. Beiniawski Z. T. Engineering Rock Mass Classification. A Complete Manual for Engineers and Geologist in Mining, Civil and Petrolium Engineering. Canada: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1989, 251 p.

17. Sherpa M., Hagan P. The Effect of Joint Properties on a Discontinuous Rock Mass. MEA Research Projects Review. 2013, no. 2, pp. 75–81.

18. Zhang Y., Mitri H. Stability assessment of non-entry stopes using nonlinear finite element analysis. Proceedings of the 1st Canada-US Rock Mechanics Symposium — Rock Mechanics Meeting Society’s Challenges and Demands. 2007, no. 2, pp. 1347–1351. DOI: 10.1201/NOE0415444019-c167.

19. Kocharyan G. G., Kishkina S. B., Ostapchuk A. A. Seismic portrait of fault zones. What can an analysis of the fine structure of the spatial location of the foci of weak earthquakes give? Geodynamics and tectonophysics. 2010, no. 1(4), pp. 419–440. [In Russ].

20. Achdou Y., Giraud P. N., Lasry J. M. A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries. Appl Math Optim. 2016, vol. 74, pp. 579–618. DOI: 10.1007/s00245−016−9390−0.

21. Kudryashov A. I., Vasyukov V. E., Von der Laass G. S., et al. Discontinuous tectonics of the Verkhnekamsk salt deposit. Ed. by A. I. Kudryashov. Perm: GI UrO RAS, 2004, pp. 158–167. [In Russ].

22. Singh M., Singh B. Laboratory and Numerical Modelling of a Jointed Rock Mass. 12th International Conference on Computer Methods and Advances in Geomechanics. 2008, no. 2, pp. 1373–1380.

23. Kassin G. G., Filatov V. V. On the problem of geodynamic zoning of the territory of the Verkhnekamsk deposit of potassium and potassium-magnesium salts. Izvestiya UGSU. 2001, no. 13, pp. 186–191. [In Russ].

24. Merzlikin A. V., Zakharova L. N. Features of kinematics of rock mass movements in the process of low-amplitude disturbance development. Notes of the Mining Institute. 2018, vol. 231, p. 235. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.25515/PMI.2018.3.235.

25. Korchak P. A., Karasev M. A. Geomechanical prediction of the brittle fracture zones in rocks in the vicinity of the excavation junction of Ltd Apatit mines. Sustainable Development of Mountain Territories. 2023, vol. 15(1), pp. 67–80. DOI: 10.21177/1998−4502−2023−15−167−80.

26. Yang F., Fan J., Yang Zh., Liu W., Chen J. Plasticity analysis and constitutive model of salt rock under different loading speeds. Journal of Energy Storage. 2023, vol. 67, 107583. DOI: 10.1016/j.est.2023.107583.

27. Rybak Ya., Khairutdinov M. M., Kuziev D. A., Kongar-Suryun Ch. B., Bobyr N. V. Forecasting the geomechanical state of the massif during mining of salt deposits with a bookmark. Notes of the Mining Institute. 2022, vol. 253, pp. 61–70. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.31897/PMI.2022.2.