On the advantages and disadvantages of the extrapolation method and of correlation and regression analysis for predicting the volume of waste generation of enterprises of the mineral resource complex

The scientific article is devoted to the application of forecasting methods (extrapolation and correlation and regression analysis) for forecasting the volume of waste of mineral complex enterprises. The definition of the term mineral resource complex, formulated by the authors on the basis of other known definitions, is given. A review of possible directions of using the mentioned forecasting methods is made. The analysis of official statistical data on the dynamics of changes in the volume of production waste and the volume of finished products for iron ore enterprises in the Sverdlovsk region for the period from 2010 to 2020 has been carried out. The goals and objectives of the study are defined. The conclusions about the distorted nature of statistical reporting in terms of changes in the volume of waste generation and the volume of production of finished products are made. The advantages and disadvantages of methods of extrapolation and correlation and regression analysis for forecasting the volume of waste generation are revealed and analyzed from the position of applicability to enterprises of the mineral and raw materials complex. The conclusion about the necessity of taking into account the factors specific to the enterprises of the mineral-raw-materials complex when making the forecast is made. The conclusions about the possible directions of application of the results of forecasting the volume of waste generation by enterprises of the mineral complex have been made. The basic factors influencing the volume of production wastes formation, characteristic for the enterprises of mineral complex is substantiated.

Tseytlin E. M., Grebneva A. A. On the advantages and disadvantages of the extrapolation method and of correlation and regression analysis for predicting the volume of waste generation of enterprises of the mineral resource complex. MIAB. Mining Inf. Anal. Bull. 2022;(11-1):80—94. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.25018/0236_1493_2022_111_0_80.

Tseytlin E. M.¹, Cand. Sci. (Geol. Mineral.), Docent, Associate Professor of the Environmental Engineering Chair, e-mail: tseitlin.e.m@gmail.com;
Grebneva A. A.¹, master’s degree in the direction of training 20.04.01 “Technosphere safety” orientation (profile) “Environmental management of enterprises and territories”, OHNIR engineer, e-mail: grebneva291@gmail.com;
¹ Ural State Mining University, 30, Kuibyshev Str., Ekaterinburg, 620014, Russia.

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