Risk Assessment of Coal and Gas Outburst Accidents in Coal Mines Based on Factor Analysis and Logistic Regression

As one of the fatal hazards in coal mines, coal and gas outburst has been threatening the lives of miners and the safe production of coal mines. To quantify the impacts of associated factors on coal and gas outburst and determine the outburst risks, 20 accident causation indexes were adopted to constitute the accident causation indicator system. Then, this study investigated relationship between outburst risk and environment, management and other factors through Factor Analysis (FA). Besides, Logistic Regression (LR) model was developed to percept the safety situation of coal mines. Finally, according to the characteristics of sample distribution obtained by the Bootstrap method, the safety grades of coal mines were divided into four levels and relevant suggestions were offered. The assessment accuracy of the LR model for the coal mines with outburst accidents or not were 94%, and 85% respectively. The management factor is determined as the most likely caused factor. The results reveal that the method of FA and LR is feasible and applicable in analysing and avoiding the occurrence of coal and gas outburst accidents.

Li Xiangong, Li Yu, Fa Ziwei, Alam Easar Risk Assessment of Coal and Gas Outburst Accidents in Coal Mines Based on Factor Analysis and Logistic Regression. MIAB. Mining Inf. Anal. Bull. 2022;(9−1):116—127. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.25018/0236_1493_2022_101_0_116.

The authors would like to acknowledge the assistance the China University of Mining and Technology. This work is supported by the National Key Research and Development Project of China [Grant numbers: 2017YFC0804408].

Xiangong Li, lecturer, School of Mines, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, China, cumtlxg@163.com;
Yu Li, master, School of Mines, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu 222116, China, liyu_cumt@foxmail.com;
Ziwei Fa, master, School of Economics and Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, China, 1015265542@qq.com;
Alam Easar, School of Environment Science and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, China, easaralam@hotmail.com;

Xiangong Li, School of Mines, China University of Mining and Technology, No. 1 University Road, Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province, 221116, China, е-mail addresses: cumtlxg@163.com.

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