Assessment of the geological factors influence on the danger degree of accidents on underground pipelines in St. Petersburg using artificial neural networks

The article considers the actual problem of engineering and geological factors impact on the occurrence of accidents on underground pipelines and the creation of a zoning map of the territory of megacities. Based on the literary sources analysis, a list of engineering and geological factors influencing the possibility of accidents on underground pipelines located on the Vasilievsky Island in St. Petersburg has been compiled. The article a method for assessing the influence of factors on the degree of danger of accidents on underground pipelines has been proposed. The assessment was carried out using an artificial neural network (ANN), which was trained based on recorded accidents. The direct calculation of the weighting coefficients was performed by the Garson method (Garson G. D.). The estimates of the weighting coefficients made it possible, in the particular area conditions, to divide the factors into three groups: tectonic disturbances; groundwater, biogas and others, as well as to indicate their influence degree. The factors significance assessments were used to create a zoning territory map according to the accidents on underground pipelines danger degree. The results presented in the article allow us to conclude about their practical significance, which consists in the possibility of their application in the design and operation of underground utilities, and not only pipelines.

Guseva N. V., Kiselev V. A. Assessment of the geological factors influence on the danger degree of accidents on underground pipelines in st. Petersburg using artificial neural networks. MIAB. Mining Inf. Anal. Bull. 2024;(11−1):171—186. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.25018/0236_1493_2024_111_0_171.

Guseva N. V.¹, Cand. Sci. (Eng.), senior researcher of the Geodynamics Laboratories of the Scientific Center for Geomechanics and Mining Problems, Guseva_NV@pers.spmi.ru, guseva-nv@mail.ru;
Kiselev V. A.¹, Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Associate Professor of the Department of mine-surveying, Kiselev_VA@pers.spmi.ru, Kisselevva@mail.ru;
¹ Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University, Russia

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