Landslide susceptibility zonation using the analytical hierarchy process. A case study of Guantanamo Province

The creation of predictive models to determine areas susceptible to landslides is important for timely management towards disaster prevention of these phenomena. The present study in the province of Guantanamo in Cuba had as main objective the landslide susceptibility zonation (LSZ). The multicriteria decision method used by Saaty (1980) was adopted, considering the factors; slope angle, elevation, distance to rivers, distance to fault, distance to roads, average annual rainfall, lithology, soil depth, soil type, texture and vegetation. Factor weights were determined through the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and factor class ratings were assigned through logical judgment. Landslide susceptibility indices were determined based on a continuous numerical scale developed for this purpose. It was found that the zones of high and moderate susceptibility corresponded to the northeast of the Guantánamo province, which are characterized by a high density of faults and the hydrological network, shallow soils with clayey composition. This zone is also constituted fundamentally by rocks of the metamorphic and ophiolitic complexes, in general, very structurally affected. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve showed acceptable results. In addition, the risk assessment indicated that populations at high to very high risk.

Keywords: Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Guantanamo, landslide susceptibility zonation, Cuba, landslides, gravitational processes, landslide hazard, nine-point importance scale, according to Saaty.
For citation:

Pospehov G. B., Savón Yu., Moseykin V. V. Landslide susceptibility zonation using the analytical hierarchy process. A case study of Guantanamo Province. MIAB. Mining Inf. Anal. Bull. 2024;(1):125-145. DOI: 10.25018/0236_1493_2024_1_0_125.

Issue number: 1
Year: 2024
Page number: 125-145
ISBN: 0236-1493
UDK: 624.131.439.3
DOI: 10.25018/0236_1493_2024_1_0_125
Article receipt date: 02.10.2023
Date of review receipt: 07.11.2023
Date of the editorial board′s decision on the article′s publishing: 10.12.2023
About authors:

G.B. Pospehov1, Cand. Sci. (Geol. Mineral.), Assistant Professor, e-mail:, ORCID ID: 0000-0001-9090-5150, 
Yu. Savón1, Graduate Student, e-mail:, ORCID ID: 0000-0002-9640-8478,
V.V. Moseykin, Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Professor, e-mail:, ORCID ID: 0000-0002-2286-1480, National University of Science and Technology «MISiS», 119049, Moscow, Russia,
1 Empress Catherine II Saint-Petersburg Mining University, 199106, Saint-Petersburg, Russia.


For contacts:

G.B. Pospehov, e-mail:


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