An approach to decision support in directional drilling in variable geomagnetic conditions

The Arctic zone of Russia, holding over 25% of oil reserves and 75% of gas reserves, features a high variability of the geomagnetic field, which implies added risks in production of hard-to-recover hydrocarbons using the methods of directional drilling. Geomagnetic perturbations due to changes in the space weather reduce accuracy of magnetic inclinometer survey. This calls for new methods of fast prediction and recording of these perturbations for the minimization of technological hazards. This article proposes a science-based approach to support decision-making in directional drilling in the high-latitude regions. The approach involves prediction of a complementary error of magnetic inclinometers due to the extreme variations in the geomagnetic field. The analysis of the interrelation between parameters of solar wind, geomagnetic perturbations and magnetometry errors allowed determining key correlations to be used as a framework for the decision-making. The system of the decision support is developed, including the data mining for the prediction of the inclinometer survey errors. The best prediction accuracy belongs in the gradient boosting algorithms which provide an average absolute error of ~0.18° at the coefficient of determination R² ~0.85. The results facilitate reduction of risks connected with the understudy of mechanisms of geomagnetic variations in the auroral zone, and with the lack of the immediate data on the condition of the geomagnetic field. The proposed approach opens up new opportunities of enhancing precision and safety of directional drilling under high geomagnetic activity. 

Vorobev A. V., Hannanov N. K., Vorobeva G. R. An approach to decision support in directional drilling in variable geomagnetic conditions. MIAB. Mining Inf. Anal. Bull. 2026;(2):156-170. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.25018/0236_1493_2026_2_0_156.

The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, Project No. 21-77-30010-P).

A.V. Vorobev, Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Senior Researcher, Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 119296, Moscow, Russia, e-mail: geomagnet@list.ru, ORCID ID: 0000-0002-9680-5609,
N.K. Hannanov¹, Graduate Student, e-mail: nael20000@yandex.ru, ORCID ID: 0009-0005-1132-3440,
G.R. Vorobeva¹, Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Professor, e-mail: gulnara.vorobeva@gmail.com, ORCID ID: 0000-0001-7878-9724,
¹ Ufa University of Science and Technology, 450076, Ufa, Russia.

N.K. Hannanov, e-mail: nael20000@yandex.ru.

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