A seismic impact forecasting methodology for production blasts at the Kedrovsky coal mine based on explosives energy properties

This paper proposes a methodology for predicting seismic impact generated by blasting operations at mineral resource sector enterprises. Existing approaches to local magnitude assessment are analyzed, including those based on surface and body waves, as well as the Richter scale, moment magnitude, energy magnitude, and the local magnitude scale originally developed for Southern California conditions. The proposed approach is based on quantile regression analysis, which establishes a relationship between the energy of the explosive charge per delay interval and the local magnitude value. The seismic event energy was calculated via the mass of the explosive, considering the specific heat of explosion for different charge types. The study established a statistically significant linear relationship between the logarithm of the explosion energy and the local magnitude. The developed quantile regression model underwent comprehensive verification, including tests for residual normality, homoscedasticity, and the absence of autocorrelation. To improve prediction accuracy, quantile regression equations for the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles were calculated, allowing for data spread consideration and enabling a conservative assessment. The developed methodological framework allows for predicting blast-induced seismic effects from industrial explosions with a required level of reliability. The research contributes to solving the urgent task of ensuring industrial safety during blasting operations.

Afanasev P. I., Akhmetov A. R., Fadeev A. A., Shmonin I. V. A seismic impact forecasting methodology for production blasts at the Kedrovsky coal mine based on explosives energy properties. MIAB. Mining Inf. Anal. Bull. 2026;(2-1):5-18. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.25018/0236_1493_2026_21_0_5.

The research was carried out within the framework of Activity No. 1 of the Integrated Scientic and Technical Program of the Full Innovation Cycle, approved by the Order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated May 11, 2022, No. 1144-r. 

P.I. Afanasev¹, Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Assistant Professor, e-mail: Afanasev_PI@pers.spmi.ru,
A.R. Akhmetov¹, Student, e-mail: s201038@stud.spmi.ru,
A.A. Fadeev², Technical Director,
I.V. Shmonin², Deputy Technical Director, e-mail: shmonin@kru.ru,
¹ Empress Catherine II Saint-Petersburg Mining University, 199106, Saint-Petersburg, Russia,
² JSC «Coal company «Kuzbassrazrezugol», 650054, Kemerovo, Russia.

P.I. Afanasev, e-mail: Afanasev_PI@pers.spmi.ru.

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