Development of a methodology for expert assessment of the impact of mining factors on the stability of underground workings

The issues related to geomechanical support of field development are considered. A new approach to the assessment of geomechanical conditions is proposed, based on the use of an integral indicator based on standardized geological and technological parameters, in which the influence of each factor is determined by expert assessment. An adaptive mathematical model for assessing the influence of factors is described, the target parameter of which is an integral indicator of geomechanical conditions. The model implements sensitivity analysis mechanisms that allow quantifying the contribution of each parameter, as well as scenario modeling that provides an assessment of changes in the geomechanical state with varying input data. This solution allows for a comprehensive study of the effects of various combinations of factors on the stability of workings and an experimental verification of hypotheses about the influence of parameters. A comparative analysis of the distribution of the values of the integral indicator of geomechanical conditions in various mining sites makes it possible to identify areas that require special attention in order to further develop measures to improve safety. Subsequently, it is planned to implement the model as an application tool for engineering analysis and decision support in the mining industry.

Grishchenkova E. N., Morozov K. V., Noskov V. A. Development of a methodology for expert assessment of the impact of mining factors on the stability of underground workings. MIAB. Mining Inf. Anal. Bull. 2025;(12-2):154-165. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.25018/0236_1493_2025_122_0_154.

E.N. Grishchenkova¹, Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Senior Researcher, e-mail: ekgr.mail@gmail.com, ORCID ID: 0000-0001-5377-7639, 
K.V. Morozov¹, Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Head of Laboratory, е-mail: morozov_kv@pers.spmi.ru, ORCID ID: 0000-0003-3597-756X, Scopus Author ID: 57196008021,
V.A. Noskov¹, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Deputy Director for Science and Innovation, e-mail: noskov_va@pers.spmi.ru, ORCID ID: 0009-0006-6971-541X,
¹ Research Center for Geomechanics and Mining Problems, Empress Catherine II Saint-Petersburg Mining University, 199106, Saint-Petersburg, Russia.

E.N. Grishchenkova, e-mail: ekgr.mail@gmail.com.

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