Statistical assessment and forecasting of the quality of groundwater in the Volga-Alb aquifer in an urbanized area

The article presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of the quality of groundwater in the Volga-Alb aquifer in a large metropolis based on monitoring data from 2018 to 2025. Special attention is paid to the sulfate, acid, and chloride aggression of groundwater, which can lead to the leaching of concrete and corrosion of underground and submerged structures in the city. A total of 149 analyses were conducted on three key components: ammonium ions (NH4+), calcium (Ca2+), and petroleum products (PP) from a network of 10 observation wells at depths of 15-45 m. The methods used include descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, time series modeling (ARIMA), linear trend models, and spatial dependence analysis (Spearman coefficient, Mantel test) taking into account the distance to the river. It was found that the concentration of NH4+ ranges from 0.06 to 67.0 mg/L (mean 5.03 mg/L, CV = 48–152%), Ca2+ ranges from 4.53 to 333.0 mg/L (mean 73.44 mg/L), and total petroleum products decreased by 65–88% during the study period. Maximum pollution levels were recorded in the city center and in areas with heavy traffic, while minimum levels were recorded in park areas. The correlation analysis showed a weak positive relationship between NH4+ and Ca2+ (r = 0.299), which indicates local characteristics and sources of pollution. The forecast for 2026 indicates a decrease in petroleum product concentrations (expected decrease of 15–20%) and stabilization of water quality in most areas, but an increase in NH4+ concentrations by 10–15% is predicted in the central part of the study area.

Dubov N. D., Rozental O. M., Kulikova E. Yu. Statistical assessment and forecasting of the quality of groundwater in the volga-alb aquifer in an urbanized area. MIAB. Mining Inf. Anal. Bull. 2026;(8):53-66. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.25018/0236_1493_2026_8_0_53.

N.D. Dubov¹, Graduate Student, e-mail: nikita_dubov.99@mail.ru, ORCID ID: 0009-0000-0068-7920, Scopus Author ID: 60437457600,
O.M. Rozental¹, Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Professor, Chief Researcher, e-mail: omro3@yandex.ru, ORCID ID: 0000-0001-6261-6060, Scopus Author ID: 57201976349, SPIN-code 4857-7570,
E.Yu. Kulikova, Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Professor, Head of Chair, MIREA — Russian Technological University, Moscow, Russia; University of Science and Technology MISIS, 119049, Moscow, Russia, e-mail: kulikova_ey@mirea.ru, ORCID ID: 0000-0002-9290-671X, Scopus Author ID: 55827930100, SPIN-code 6674-6807,
¹ Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.

E.Yu. Kulikova, e-mail: kulikova_ey@mirea.ru.

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